MEMPERKIRAKAN TINGKAT PENGHUNI HOTEL MENGGUNAKAN ANALISIS ARIMA DENGAN APLIKASI MINITAB

Abstract

This article discusses how the Hotel Room Occupancy Rate Prediction in 2018 in July-December where the data used is taken from 2009 to 2018 in June. A hotel is a business that uses buildings or a part of it specifically provided, where everyone can stay and eat and get services and other facilities. The data collection method used is the literature method, which is information obtained from reading books and reference material relating to the activity of the final project, and the method of documentation, namely the writer taking the data that has been available at the
agency, and the interview method, namely conducting question and answer to parties related to. While in data analysis, the writer uses the time series analysis method and is assisted with Minitab software in its completion. The model chosen was the ARIMA model (2,1,1) and obtained forecasting results for the next 6 months that the level of hotel room occupants in Salatiga City will continue to experience high and low levels
of hotel room occupants in Salatiga at certain times. Based on the results of forecasting with the ARIMA method obtained it can be concluded that the data is not stationary then it is differencing, after differencing determining ACF and PACF, white noise test, which means the data used are normally distributed so that it can predict the occupancy rate of hotel rooms in 2018 namely 39 , 46, 40.97, 39.86, 40.86, 39.89, 40.85. From this study can be a picture of changes in the Salatiga City Hotel Occupancy Rate at this time where this research is reviewed from the Salatiga City Hotel Room Occupancy Rate which has lasted longer.  

Keywords: Forecasting,Arima,Minitab