PERAMALAN PENJUALAN SEPEDA MOTOR DI PT. SABENA MOTOR TAHUN 2019 MENGGUNAKAN METODE ARIMA

Abstract

Motorcycle is a two-wheeled vehicle driven by a machine. The position of the two wheels in a
straight line, the low speed, the stability and balance of the motorcycle depend on the
handlebar settings by the rider. The use of motorbikes is very popular because of their
relatively cheap price, affordable fuel consumption and operational costs. Sabena Motor Ltd
often experiences unsuitable sales targets. The purpose of this study is to determine the ARIMA
model and forecasting from Honda motorcycle sales data from January to December 2019.
This study uses the ARIMA method. The assumptions that must be met in this method are
stationary data, the variables used are single (univariate) variables and the autocorrelation
value of the remainder is not significantly different from zero. Analysis for forecasting is
carried out in 4 stages, namely, the model identification stage, the parameter assessment and
testing stage, the diagnostic examination stage and the forecasting stage. After going through
data analysis with 4 stages, the ARIMA model is obtained to predict sales of Honda motorbikes at PT. Sabena Motor 2019 with the following model forms:
𝑌𝑡= 0,0889 + 0,2998 𝑌𝑡−1 + 0,1976 𝑌𝑡−2 + 0,0482 𝑌𝑡−3 + 0,4544𝑌
Based on the model obtained, the forecast results for January to December 2019 are respectively 91,69; 88,80; 92,70; 93,34; 92,58; 94,17; 94,41; 95;52; 95,62; 96,62; 97,11.

Keywords: Motorcycle, Forecasting, ARIMA Method 𝑡−4+ 𝑒𝑡